Friday, May 30, 2008

CNBC Fast Money Recap 5/29 5/29/08 Dell - Visa

Fast Money Stocks 5/28/08
Jeff Mackie: Opinions
Thinks Oil is Topping
Buy Oil when its down $5-$6 in a day
Likes Merck here
Mackie owns Microsft MSFT
TRMP.....not buying it

Guy Adami: Opinions
Possible Oil Top
Dell is running the business better....big run, don't pile in...take profits
Likes Intel at $21-$22 ....likes it long term
Mastercard......big not buy...easy money is over
Thinks you might have seen the bottom in Financials
Joy Global JOYG numbers were on any pullback along with BUCY
Merck is buy and stop out below $36.50
Buy Microsoft because its cheap

Pete Najarian: Opinions
Oil Didn't break down yet but pulled back...below $120 is a breakdown
Sell Dell into this rally
Google impressive click numbers
Visa is still a BUY....
Norfolk stock
Still loves the coal stocks....JOYG, BTU, BUCY
Boston Scientific is a Buy
CHK CEO bought 600,000 shares.....Najarian likes this alot!

Karen Finerman: Opinions

Likes the Financials right now ..... Although shes not sure where the bottom is.
Big Lots BIG.....shorted today....not buying the run up at all
Likes C - Citigroup

Joe Terranova Guest: Opinions

Thinks Oil could test $120 Support
$120 Break in Oil could spark massive selling

John Najarian: Opinions

Likes DRI Darden, Kelloggs, Starbucks SBUX...they are hedged for inflation

Jim Cramer Mad Money 5/28/08Jim says he likes: Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Technical Stock Analysis : Thoughts on Technical Stock Chart Analysis

I wanted to Blog about this topic but wanted to provide some examples and give my personal thoughts about Technical Analysis. I want to explain what I look for on the charts. Keep in mind, fundamentals are always the keys to a stocks performance but I believe Technical Analysis can be a huge asset to an Investor or a Stock Trader, if he/she uses it right.

First, here is the Wikipedia description of Technical Analysis.

Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.[1] In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects all relevant factors before an investor becomes aware of them through other channels. Technical analysts may employ models and trading rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the Relative Strength Index, moving averages, regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, through recognition of chart patterns. OK, so I guess the things I look for differ somewhat from that description.

What I look for the most are:

Support Levels ( Buy Interest from Investors or Traders ) and Resistance Levels ( Sell Interest from Investors or Traders ). For me this is key in deciding where to buy a stock and where I should most likely sell it.

Here is an example of FSLR First Solar today.

First Solar has solid support at the $260 level and I have been pounding the table on this. This to me is where buyers are ready to step in after the stock has fallen. But what do I consider a true break of support? Well, you have to figure out if you are a Day Trader or a Short or Long Term Investor/Trader. For the Day Traders, support was broken this morning causing the stock to sink down to $253 in about 20 minutes. That is a big down move. Short Term Traders/Investors or people investing for the Long Term are looking to see how it closes the day. As you can see....FSLR is back over $260 and breaking out to $266. FSLR hit support, found buyers, and is now rising from the buying interest. From this point of view, FSLR is still solid because although it broke down intra day, it finished strong and support is still intact at the $260 level. Chances are, buying will increase even more if $260 is tested again.

So to sum this up in regard to Technical Analysis.....Day Traders are worried about what the stock will do in the next hour.....Short Term/ Long Term traders or Investors are looking several days, months, or years out when making a decision now.I also use moving averages especially the 10, 50, 200 Day. To me personally, nothing beats support and resistance levels, but the average price per 10,50,200 days are sometimes important. I have found from experience that the 200 Day moving average is a major support and resistance level. If a stock closes below this level you sell, if the stock rises above this level its a good signal to get back in.

What I don't use: I don't use Bollinger Bands or anything really technical because these are just bogus. I cannot find where buyers are waiting to get in from a Bollinger Band. I will occasionally use RSI and MACD levels, but only when they are ready to cross a certain point. Fibonacci retracement levels are also way to technically bogus. Again, I look at my level 2 data and can see big buy or sell orders coming in at a certain area and know where there is support over several days. The Technical Charts are great because I can visualize this.Technical Charts are a great tool for those who don't to carried away. Know where there are serious buyers and know where they are selling so that you can trade or invest off of this info. Keep track of recent stock price lows and highs because chances are when those points are broken...the stock will go each way respectively

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Ivan - Ivanhoe Energy Pre Market Stock Update

5/27/08 Pre Market Update SOLF, IVAN

I don't expect to much to happen today as people are still getting back from vacation.Some pre market stocks of interest are Solf Solarfun and Ivan Ivanhoe Energy. Keep your eye on IVAN as it is finally breaking out. Check out my chart all the way at the bottom of this page.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Garmin GRMN GPS Stock Ready to Rock NuviPhone

Garmin has seen many low blows lately in the stock market. First, the stock had gotten cut in half this year with no recovery. Second, they came out and warned on earnings, scaring wall street, and third, they were victim to a Tom Tom downgrade which sent their stock in a tailspin all the way down to $40.

Earlier this month Garmin released earnings and given the economic slowdown in the USA....there was no surprise that they would miss earnings. The key thing I was looking for was earnings guidance. Turns out they guided right in line. Since forming a double bottom after earnings, GRMN stock has finally recovered to close 5/16/08 over $50 for the first time since the Tom Tom warning.

Whats next you ask? Garmin will start a new uptrend and eventually hit a target of $75 recently given by I will sell this stock around Thanksgiving when it is alot higher.

Don't forget.....the most exciting product is yet to come... The NuviPhone which is Garmins touch screen smart phone focused on GPS.

When this phone comes out in the 4th quarter.....It will have consumers and investors very excited!

For more info......check out my website

Saturday, May 17, 2008

ENER - Energy Conversion Devices Update FSLR

As you already know, I am a shareholder of Energy Conversion Devices...ticker symbol ENER.

I bought this stock on the first day of the Earnings breakout at $42 per share at about 9:45am. I watched this stock all morning up go with huge volume in pre market so it was the real deal this time. ENER has had major problems executing earnings in the finally seeing them execute was key to a successful new management team.

So after 10am it held $40 and went on to break a new high of day. When stocks break out on huge volume, especially the high of the day after can potentially set up for a incredible move.

When ENER broke out, I had flashbacks to First Solar ( FSLR ) back in Feb 2007 when I bought FSLR in afterhours at $38 after they released their earnings. It went down to $36...shot back up to $40 and I sold for a nice $2000 gain. First Solar is now $310 per share.

Back to ENER.....I knew from my Stock Charts that the first resistance level was at $46.88ish. Turns out we blew past that level....hit $48, and then bounced off the support of $46.88 level repetitively. I then thought if this level could hold, we would test $50. A close above $50 and we would quickly run to $55 and eventually test all time support at the $57.82. Keep in mind, I found these points from highs 2 1/2 years ago.....because of the fact ENER gapped over the previous years highs...I needed to find the next ones which took my the whole way back to 2005.

So in conclusion.....I think ENER is a baby First Solar if management can execute....that is a big " IF ". So far they have shown us three straight quarters of great things.

On the charts, if we can close over that big resistance of $57.82 we could really start moving.

To view my ENER chart go to :

Friday, May 16, 2008

Visa V MasterCard MA Stock ENER

Both Visa V and MasterCard MA have been on a tear lately. I've expected a pullback lately but have not seen much of one lately. Visa still holding that $81 level but the new support is $82.

You can see this clearly on my chart below

Visa clearly still has buyers as volume starts to die down a bit. Mastercard is the best out of these two stocks though. Both stand to benefit from the stimulous package coming our way this summer.

I would get long Mastercard and Visa on any big pullback. I would also take a hard look at Potash ( POT ) and Energy Conversion Devices ( ENER ). Don't forget Garmin ( GRMN ) either!

PDO still stands as the hottest stock this year so far by a mile. After todays close its up over 400% easily.

PDO - Pyramid Oil Company #1 Stock This Year

I'm not sure how far this one can go....but they just released great earnings and it is the #1 biggest percentage gainer of the year.

Pyramid Oil Company Announces Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth in First Fiscal QuarterThursday May 15, 2:31 pm ET
Revenue Increases 92% to $1.6 Million Versus Q1 Last Year; Net Income Improves to $834,000, or $0.22 per Share, Versus $58,000, or $0.02 per Share, in Comparable Year-Ago Quarter
Revenue Increases 92% to $1.6 Million Versus Q1 Last Year; Net Income Improves to $834,000, or $0.22 per Share, Versus $58,000, or $0.02 per Share, in Comparable Year-Ago Quarter

Garmin GRMN Stock on Fire Today!! ENER

Garmin is doing everything that I expected Garmin to do recently......I'm glad Wall Street is finally taking notice that it is a cheap stock. It is not a traders stock, it is a buy and hold until Thanksgiving or Christmas.....and that is what I intend to do. Same for ENER. I'm excited to see what it does when it can finally hold above $50 for a few days.

For a more detailed chart check out the following page as I have made a great chart

Monday, May 12, 2008

ENER : Energy Conversion Devices

ENER Energy Conversion Devices
My last post tonight: A guest on CNBC Fast Money tonight saying that Energy Conversion Devices ENER is going to $80. He says the big boys haven't bought yet and they will all pile in. To be continued........

As always, check out my hottest stocks during the day